Enrollment in US physics graduate programs declined in fall 2025

Federal funding uncertainty has roiled U.S. physics graduate programs over the past year. Now, a new report confirms this uncertainty is impacting enrollment.

Back in April 2025, researchers from the American Institute of Physics (AIP) predicted that funding uncertainty would lead to reduced graduate admissions and enrollment in physics programs. A December 2025 study from the same team confirms these predictions were accurate.

The AIP researchers originally predicted a decline of approximately 13% in enrollment of first-year graduate students, a stark change from prior years, when the field was steadily growing. This prediction was mainly based on the uncertainty surrounding federal grant funding, like the federal funding freeze that impacted National Science Foundation awardees in January 2025 and policy changes that led to the cancellation of over one thousand NSF grants last May.

Court rulings have reinstated many grants, and earlier this year, Congress largely rejected the sweeping budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration, restoring over $10 billion in funding across four key science agencies and billions more for several others.

But many departments still face cuts, and months of funding volatility have had lasting impacts. The uncertainty was also heightened by changes to student visa policies, including a month-long pause on issuing new visas last summer. After the pause, incoming students faced increased scrutiny, and more than 8,000 student visas have been revoked since the start of Trump’s second term.

More recently, the Trump administration proposed a major rule change to F-1 and J-1 visas — those most commonly used by international academics — that would limit students’ enrollment to four years, regardless of the standard time-to-degree in their programs. The administration also added a $100,000 fee to some H-1B skilled worker visas, used by international students to transition to work after graduating.

AIP’s research has revealed dips in enrollment. Preliminary data from AIP’s newest survey of physics departments estimates that first-year enrollment has declined 7-9% for fall 2025. This represents around 300 fewer students in physics programs across the country.

“Physics departments’ fears that declining funding was going to impact their department’s enrollments were true,” says Patrick Mulvey, one of the study authors. This study currently includes 60% of departments with graduate programs in physics in the U.S., and will be updated as more departments respond to the survey.

Physics department chairpersons were also asked follow-up questions about their plans for admission. A third of departments said they planned to enroll fewer first-year students for fall 2025, and about half planned to keep admissions steady. The most cited reason for enrolling fewer students was the loss of or uncertainty around federal funding, followed by restrictions imposed from the university.

Students applying in that admissions cycle felt this impact, too. “I was told in an interview for another program that they would be sending me a rejection because they did not have any funding for me,” says Natalie Price, a first-year master’s student at Wesleyan University. “Grad school admissions are always going to be competitive, but it was insanely stressful last year, since, as acceptance decisions were being made, funding was being slashed all across the country.”

Visa troubles also impacted enrollment, as some international students, facing visa delays, denials, or uncertainty, were unable to follow through on their acceptances of admission offers. Over half of physics departments in the study had at least one student who accepted an offer but didn’t enroll; 88% of those students were non-U.S. citizens. (The study does not have previous data to compare to for non-enrollments, so it’s unclear if past years had similar patterns.) Many universities offered these students the option to defer enrollment to next year, in the hopes that the visa situation improves.

These enrollment hits weren’t distributed evenly. “Doctoral-granting departments as a whole were more likely to experience declines than departments where the master’s is the highest degree offered,” says Mulvey. “Master’s departments rely less heavily on federal funding and international students than the doctoral-granting programs.”

Even where students were eventually enrolled, the admissions process was an unusually bumpy road. “The timeline from admitting to the visit to the students having to decide was significantly rushed,” says Claire Williams, a graduate student at the University of California, Los Angeles, who helped welcome prospective graduate students on their department visit. “I definitely felt bad that they had so little time to think things over.”

Some students received offer letters with descriptions of financial support that were less concrete than in past years — another consequence of departments facing funding volatility. “Students that came to the prospective visit were more confused about what they can expect to be paid and how much they would have to TA,” adds Williams. “We didn't really know what to tell them, since we couldn't guarantee that there wouldn't be issues in the future.”

In the AIP study from last April, many department chairs expressed concern that enrollment may be more challenging in fall 2026, and they are concerned about the effects on both students’ and faculty’s morale, wellbeing, and productivity. It’s unclear if enrollment will bounce back next year.

“Departments are looking for ways to continue funding students,” says Mulvey. “The current volatility around federal funding and student visas makes it anyone’s guess as to how this will look in the near or distant future.”